Elliot Wave probability in coming days - 21st sept 2019

Hi

As per me, Nifty has recently completed its WAVE A, from the highs of 11981.

Now WAVE B is going on, and this seems a flat Wave correction, so this up move can go up till 90% (approx) of the previous fall. So we get a target around 11800.

After that WAVE C will start and may end near 10000 or max till 9600. But if we have a flat correction, generally C Wave tends to complete around 123%/138% of WAVE A. Hence the targets of 10300/10000, Seems highly possible. But if the news are highly negative at that time can see lower end of the target around 9600/9800

The Chart is self explanatory.

Election Period Analysis - 8th May 2019 - Elliott Wave Analysis

Hi All,
I am trying to predict the movement of stock market during/after election Period.
Analysis is mainly based on Elliott Wave.
Using Weekly Charts for some clues.

Elliott Wave Enthusiasm




Weekly Chart.

So as of now expecting this ongoing correction to complete near the levels of  11350/11200.
After that, with the final up move for this glorious multi year rally may take nifty to the levels of 12500.

All this view is negated once nifty starts trading below 10500.

Kshitij

Nifty and Bank nifty waves

The chart is self-explanatory. Seems 3rd wave got completed this friday.
Now 4th wave has started & may finish near 10300 & 24700 approx., for Nifty and Bank nifty respectively.



Disclaimer :
I am not SEBI registered.
Blog Posts are for Study Purposes Only.
Take your own decision.
This is my Own Trade & keeping this as my Trading Records.

long term view on nifty

Hi All,

This is a very long term view on nifty.
As per me, we started our upmove from the lows of 2539 from 6th march 2009.
I generally take the help of Bank nifty for the calculations.
Even Bank nifty started its upmove from the same date, hence, instead of taking the lows as  2252, am taking this 2539 as the starting point for my calculation, others may differ, i respect their views as well.

So as per me, the
1st wave is from 2539 - 6338 - around 3799 points
2nd wave  -  6338-4531 - 1807 points correction - probably all will agree to this.
3rd wave - 4531-9119 - 4588 points of steep upmove on the backdrop of modi coming to power & his pro friendly attitude towards business.
4th Wave - 9119 - 6825 - 2293 points correction exactly 50% retracement.
Now  5th Wave is going on - so from 6825 - ? , here wave analysis gives an edge, as per elliott wave , 5th wave is almost equal to 1st wave  or near abouts 5th wave. so that gives a target of either 6825+3799 = 10624 (we have already exceeded this target) so next logical target is equivalent ot 5th wave that is 4588 points, 6825+4588 = 11413 approx.
So the termination point of the 5th wave could be anything between 10624-11413.
So as of now, IMO, we are in 5th of 5th...hence caution warranted.
Generally the 5th wave has a distinct character of index making new highs but a lot of stocks not participating in the up move. Only a select few will take the index higher.
Here at 11400 approx, we are completing a bigger 5th wave(Others may differ). And like 2008 we might have an approximately 4000 point cut. But unlike 2008 wherein market fell within an year, this time it would be quite different, it would be a very slow process approximately taking 4-6 years of correction.

Attaching the monthly chart for reference.



Disclaimer :
I am not SEBI registered.
Blog Posts are for Study Purposes Only.
Take your own decision.
This is my Own Trade & keeping this as my Trading Records.

Nifty Wave Structure - After Budget - 4th Feb 18

Hi All,

I am posting my views on Nifty.
As per me, we have completed 3 waves from the lows of 9687.55.
1st wave 9687.55 - 10409
2nd Wave 10409 - 10074
3rd Wave 10074 - 11171
4th Wave - it going on....retraces around 38% ( just below 10752 - which is already done) or near about 50% - (near about 10625 - probably it may get over somewhere in the range of 10625-10680) of 3rd wave.
5th Wave - once the 4th wave completes, we may see a new high, and probably it may terminate near 11400.
So lets start looking for a buying setup in coming week.
Chart for Reference.



EDIT as on 10th Feb 2018

I am still firm on my belief of another all time high coming in few weeks.
Have not seen any divergence in MACD and RSI on day chart as of now, which suggests one rise/All time High pending in coming few days, at least price retracing back to the recent highs.

Let me analyze this fall, considering this as a Contracting Triangle correction.

Contracting Triangle:­
In a Contracting Triangle, Wave A is always the longest and most violent amongst Wave A, C and E followed by Wave C (which is almost always 61.8% of Wave A) and Wave E which must be at least 38.2% of Wave C but no more than 99% of Wave C.
Here, you may have observed that there is no mention of the relationship or behavior of Wave B or Wave D. That is because the relationship or behavior of Waves B & D never determines the type of Triangle forming. As long as Waves B & D conform to rules of price, time and complexity similarity, virtually anything is allowed. Waves B & D should exhibit standard alternation or reverse alternation.

It is a 5 wave correction. Every wave has internal 3 waves that is 3-3-3-3-3.
Generally the highs and lows of Wave A of Contracting Triangle corrections are not broken.

Rules of Triangle Correction
Rule 1
Wave B should be between 38.2% and 261.8% of Wave A and Wave B should not be equal to Wave A. (now Wave B is unfolding lets see how much it retraces)

Rule 2

Out of Wave B to Wave E, 3 waves should retrace at least 50% of previous wave.

Rule 3

False Breach of 0-B Trend line indicates the possibility of a Triangle in progress.

Need to check on these rules from time to time confirm if this is a Contracting Triangle.

This view will be negated once prices start going below 10000.

Disclaimer :
I am not SEBI registered.
Blog Posts are for Study Purposes Only.
Take your own decision.
This is my Own Trade & keeping this as my Trading Records.

Elliott Wave Structure from 7893 Low

Hi All,

Am posting my view of Elliott wave from the lows of 7893.8, which came on 26th Dec 2016.

As per me, the 1st wave completed around 9273, 2nd Wave completed at 9075.
3rd Wave completed around 10178
4th Wave got completed at recent low of 9687
Now 5th wave is going on - expecting its high to be around 10700.
Attaching the chart for reference.



Disclaimer :
I am not SEBI registered.
Blog Posts are for Study Purposes Only.
Take your own decision.
This is my Own Trade & keeping this as my Trading Records

Elliot Wave from 7893.80

Hi All,
Lets Analyze the elliott wave from 7893.80

The Chart posted above is self explainatory.

So now after a high around 9698.85, expecting a downside towards 9270 approx...where buying may come for a target of 9830.

There are big supports around 9380 - 9340 - 9300 - 9270 - 9250-9225 .... so not to worry untill these supports are breached.Can go long with 9200 as SL for the above targets.